- Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee are the standout events on Tuesday.
- Powell re-emphasized the need for encouraging economic data to shore up the Fed's confidence in managing inflation effectively.
- He underscored that it is not only high inflation that poses a risk but is apprehensive about announcing a rate cut until there is assured evidence that inflation is consistently gravitating toward the 2% target.
- However, he stressed the importance of meeting-by-meeting policy decisions, admitting that while progress has been made toward the 2% inflation goal, the recent data needs to be more encouraging to warrant a rate cut.
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives on Thursday and will be closely watched by market participants.
- YoY CPI headline inflation is forecasted to decelerate by two points to 3.1%, and the core reading is expected to hold steady at 3.4%.
- As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in July remains below 10% but at approximately 80% for September.
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