- The Pound Sterling remains broadly bullish against its major peers on Tuesday, with the focus on the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June and the employment data for the three months ending May, which will be published on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
- Investors will pay close attention to the inflation readings as they will suggest whether the Bank of England (BoE) will start reducing interest rates from the August meeting, as expected by financial markets. Economists expect the annual headline and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to have grown steadily by 2% and 3.5%, respectively. The monthly headline inflation is estimated to have risen at a slower pace of 0.1% from the former reading of 0.3%.
- Apart from the standard inflation components, investors will keenly focus on the status of price pressures in the service sector, a major factor that has been restricting BoE policymakers from advocating early rate cuts.
- On Monday, BoE’s external member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra cited concerns over squeezing consumer spending due to the maintenance of a restrictive interest rate framework. She favored cutting borrowing rates with the belief that inflation is unlikely to rise sharply again.
- Meanwhile, the three-month-ending in May ILO Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain steady at 4.4%. In the same period, other key components on which market participants will keenly focus are Average Earnings, Excluding and Including bonuses, a key measure of wage growth that fuels service inflation. The wage growth measure, Excluding and Including bonuses, is estimated to decelerate to 5.7%.
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