POUND STERLING TRADES CAUTIOUSLY AHEAD OF US INFLATION DATA

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  • The Pound Sterling faces pressure near 1.3060 against the US Dollar, with US inflation under the spotlight.
  • A majority of Fed officials voted for a larger-than-usual rate cut of 50 bps in September.
  • In the UK, investors will pay close attention to the monthly GDP data for August on Friday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles above 1.3050 against the US Dollar (USD) in Thursday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure amid uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

The annual headline CPI inflation is expected to have decelerated to 2.3%, the lowest figure since February 2021, from 2.5% in August. In the same period, economists expect the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to have grown steadily by 3.2%. The month-on-month headline and core CPI are expected to have risen at a slower pace of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the last quarter of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in each of the remaining two policy meetings this year.

Signs of price pressures remaining persistent would have a nominal impact on the Fed’s dovish bets as officials are highly concerned over growing risks to economic growth, with confidence over inflation returning to the bank’s target of 2%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the September meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that a substantial majority of Fed officials voted for a 50 bps rate, pushing interest rates lower to 4.75%-5.00%, to revive the labor market strength.

 


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