Current trend

During the morning session, Brent Crude Oil prices are consolidating near the highs of October 25 at 75.00. Market activity remains restrained, as investors are in no hurry to open new positions before the US presidential election results, which will determine the US Fed’s further monetary policy. On Thursday at 20:00 (GMT 2), the regulator’s decision on the interest rate is due. 90.0% of analysts expect the indicator to be adjusted by –25 basis points but investors wait for signals in favor of another similar change during the December meeting.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghaith, speaking at the ADIPEC conference, said that there will be no peak in oil demand soon, and the gradual recovery of the global economy will become a factor in supporting the market. The cartel expects the figure to be 1.9M barrels per day this year. The comments came just a day after the organization’s member countries agreed to postpone the planned increase in crude production in December. Back in October, the production volumes were supposed to change by 180.0K barrels per day but the adjustment time has already been postponed twice amid poor energy consumption from China and increased supply from North and South America.

The American dollar is under pressure amid macroeconomic statistics. Nonfarm payrolls fell from 223.0K to 12.0K against the forecast of 113.0K, and average hourly earnings accelerated from 3.9% to 4.0% YoY and from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM, reflecting moderate risks of inflation growth. In addition, the October ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 47.2 points to 46.5 points, although experts expected 47.6 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat. The price range is expanding from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is preparing to consolidate above the zero mark. Stochastic is growing near its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 75.24, 76.05, 77.00, 77.86.

Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.00, 71.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 75.24, with the target at 77.00. Stop loss — 74.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from the 75.24 level and a breakdown of 74.00, with the target at 72.00. Stop loss — 75.24.