Weekly Market Forecast: USDJPY, EURUSD, Oil, and Bitcoin (Week Ending April 25, 2025)

Below is a concise forecast for USDJPY, EURUSD, Oil, and Bitcoin for the week ending April 25, 2025, based on recent market trends, technical analysis, and available sentiment. These forecasts are speculative and should be used alongside your own research and risk management strategies.

USDJPY Forecast

• Current Context: As of April 21, 2025, USDJPY is trading around ¥141.31, reflecting volatility driven by US economic data and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations. Recent sentiment on X suggests a short-term bearish bias, with the pair facing resistance at ¥141.85.
• Technical Outlook: The pair is testing support near ¥139.50. A break below could target ¥138.00, while a rebound above ¥141.85 may signal bullish momentum toward ¥143.00. Moving averages (50-day SMA) indicate a neutral trend, with potential for volatility due to upcoming US economic indicators like the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
• Key Factors: Watch for US Fed rhetoric and BoJ’s stance on yield curve control. Geopolitical tensions or shifts in US-Japan trade dynamics could also influence the pair.
• Forecast: Slightly Bearish. Expect USDJPY to fluctuate between ¥139.50–¥141.85, with a potential dip toward ¥138.50 if support breaks.

EURUSD Forecast

• Current Context: EURUSD is hovering around 1.1411–1.1577, supported by a recent US dollar pullback and ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming speech. Short-term bullish sentiment is noted on X, though long-term bearish views persist.
• Technical Outlook: The pair is consolidating above 1.1400, with resistance at 1.1577. A breakout above could target 1.1650, while a drop below 1.1400 may test 1.1300. RSI is neutral (40–60), suggesting room for movement without overbought/oversold conditions.
• Key Factors: Lagarde’s comments on ECB policy and US data (e.g., Richmond Manufacturing Index) will drive sentiment. Eurozone inflation expectations may also play a role.
• Forecast: Moderately Bullish. EURUSD is likely to test 1.1500–1.1577, with a breakout possible if bullish momentum holds.

Oil Forecast (US Crude)

• Current Context: Oil prices are maintaining a short-term bullish trend, trading near a support zone of $68.56–$68.85, with a growth target of $72.99–$73.79. Neutral sentiment on X reflects uncertainty amid geopolitical and demand concerns.
• Technical Outlook: Oil is in an uptrend, with support at $68.56 holding firm. A correction to this level could offer a buying opportunity, while resistance lies at $73.79. MACD shows positive momentum, supporting a bullish bias.
• Key Factors: Geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions and US inventory data will be critical. Demand forecasts from China and global growth indicators may also impact prices.
• Forecast: Bullish. Expect oil to push toward $72.00–$73.79, with corrections to $68.85 providing entry points for long trades.

Bitcoin Forecast

• Current Context: Bitcoin is trading at approximately $84,987.40, with forecasts suggesting a significant rally. Analysts predict a 27.74% increase to $107,878 by April 25, 2025, driven by institutional adoption and ETF inflows. Other projections range from $85,532 to $218,794 for 2025, reflecting high volatility.
• Technical Outlook: Bitcoin’s 50-day SMA ($84,786) and 200-day SMA ($86,407) indicate a positive medium- to long-term trend. RSI is neutral, supporting potential upside without overbought conditions. Resistance lies at $90,907, with support at $87,341.
• Key Factors: Institutional ETF flows, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions (e.g., US monetary policy) will drive price action. Posts on X highlight bullish sentiment, though bearish warnings of a drop to $78,000 exist.
• Forecast: Strongly Bullish. Bitcoin is poised to test $90,000–$100,000, potentially reaching $107,878 if momentum continues.

Conclusion

This week, USDJPY may face downward pressure, while EURUSD shows potential for gains. Oil remains in a bullish trend with clear support and resistance levels, and Bitcoin is expected to rally significantly, driven by institutional interest. Traders should monitor key economic releases, central bank commentary, and geopolitical events, while using technical indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD to time entries and exits. Always apply robust risk management, as forex and crypto markets are inherently volatile.

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