Reports that OPEC+ has kicked the can on its plans to return unwanted barrels back to markets by three months will keep crude oil prices from falling further in the imminent term, but the drag from energy supply risk premia will persist nonetheless, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Drag from energy supply risk premia set to persist
“Our return decomposition framework points to few tailwinds from supply risk premia this session, despite this supportive announcement, corroborating our view.”
“Resurgent geopolitical risks are key to supply-side tailwinds, which adds focus on a potential return of President-elect Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy on Iranian crude exports, and on geopolitical risks in the Middle East which remain at their highest levels since at least the Gulf War.”
“Alternatively, could China have a surprise in store? Our tracking of Shanghai traders' positions in base metals continues to point to notable long acquisitions heading into the December Economic Work Conference, leading to speculation that reports and media leaks could surprise to the upside.”
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