EUR/GBP has held up better than expected, buoyed by euro strength and pressure on sterling from rising gilt yields. While a dovish ECB may cap gains short term, eurozone fiscal stimulus and rate hike expectations in 2026 could drive the pair higher over time, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner note.
EUR/GBP outperforms on Euro strength
"EUR/GBP has been a lot stronger than most expected, largely as euro strength won through. Potentially hurting sterling, however, has been higher gilt yields – dragged higher by the Treasury sell-off. Any move back in 10yr gilts to 4.90/5.00% could trigger some more independent GBP weakness."
"A dovish ECB could keep EUR/GBP restrained in the near term. However, EUR/GBP should start marching higher again in 2026 when eurozone growth gets a lift from fiscal stimulus and the market could be starting to price an end-2026 ECB rate hike. The new EUR/GBP trading range could be something like 0.8500-0.8750 for the second quarter."
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