Chests puffing and saber rattling

• Currencies & metals take liberties with the Dollar on Wednesday.
• What's going on with the ECB?

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! Well, my beloved Cardinals didn't really find their bats on Wednesday, but found them enough to win 4-1 and win the rubber gaee of the 3-game series with the Astros... It was a day game, which in times past would have had me at the Ballpark to watch the game in person, but with me being able to walk about a 50 yards right now, me going to the ballpark was out of the question... Sugar Ray greets me this morning with their song: Every Morning.

Yes, wouldn't it be great to wake up every morning and look at the price of Gold and be able to that the short paper traders didn't gain an inch the previous day? Before you answer, that it's what happened yesterday, and Gold was left to trade on its own devives... And it gained... Drum roll please... $139 on the day to close at $3,354.. Holy Cow! Now that's the way to drive the ball out of the ballpark! I know, I know it wasn't slow and steady, but like I said on Monday, I'm not going to shake a stick at it!, like it had done something wrong! 

The dollar started the day down Index points in the BBDXY, and then proceeded to lose more as the day went on, with the loss coming in at the end of the day, of 10 index points to close the day at 1,224... The fear went rampant through the markets again yesterday, of a Trade War... I guess they were paying attention to Jamie Dimon's warning that I brought to you yesterday. 

The euro traded near the 114 figure before the rug got pulled form under it... The ECB issued a warning that they saw a rate cut coming more sooner than later, And that did the trick! You see, even during the last weak dollar trend that saw the euro climb to 1.50, The ECB (European Central Bank) whined and moaned about it's value just about every day! At that time, German was a manufacturing giant, and their exports to the U.S. were very expensive, given the price of the euro...  But The Secretary of the Treasury, in the 80's had this to say about the strength in the dollar, before it was brought down after the Plaza Accord in 1985... "The dollar is our Currency, but it's your problem"...  or something like that... At that time a strong dollar was the pride of the U.S. Gov't... Nowadays, they don't give a hoot about the dollar.

The price of Silver tried to keep up with the Gold price, but didn't have the legs to run with Gold, this time... Silver gained $58 on the day, to close at $32.75... I don't know if you've noticed or not, but ever since the price of Silver traded over $32 at the beginning of March, it hasn't come close to getting there after the short paper traders took it down nearly $10 in week... Silver has done a nice job of recovering lits lost ground, albeit slowly...  

The price of Oil bumped higher to end the day yesterday trading with a $63 handle... And the 10-year Treasury bond saw some buying and the yield on the bond slipped to 4.31$.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar got sold further down the river, with the BBDXY starting today down 2 more index points at 1.227... I read yesterday that the old Dollar Index had fallen below the line in the sand that would be the 100 figure, and that, in the writer's opinion, signaled that the dollar was in deep trouble of losing even more value (if that's possible, given the dollar is now worth pennies.).  

Gold is seeing some profit taking after a record day of price rise, yesterday and is down $5 to start our day today and Silver is down 15-cents to start the day... It does appear to be profit taking to me, and not short paper trading, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the short paper traders enter the markets here and use the profit taking as their excuse to sell... Not that they need an excuse, after seeing their brazen engineered takedowns in the past... Boy, I'm full of seashells and balloons this morning, eh? (McGuire).  

The price of Oil remained trading with a $63 handle overnight, and the 10-year Treasury remined trading with a 4.31% yield... The selling of Treasuries has abated folks, for now that is... In my humble country boy opinion, I think the Chinese wanted to show the U.S. what it could to its financial system if they continued to go down the trade war rabbit hole, and they then sat back and watched the U.S. Treasury market go haywire last week... I say the selling is over for now, but it could very easily return if we, as a country, continue to tick off the Chinese.

I read this morning that China has decided to leave importing Oil from the U.S. and turn to Canada for its Oil imports... And that's not a real bad thing in my opinion, I've long been of the opinion that whet ever Oil we garner here in the U.S. needs to stay in the U.S. Why on earth would we, a country so rich in raw material be beholden to other countries for these materials?  I'm just saying.

Well... The fear that gripped the markets last week, has returned... The VIX (Volatility index) rose 2 BPS yesterday, still noting like the way it sored last week, but rose nonetheless... So, her we go again... Riding this wave of volatility... Hang on to your hats folks.

I don't know what the problem is that that The ECB has with a strong euro... But , it sure shows that they do have a problem with a strong euro, given that there hadn't been any discussion recently about rate movements from the ECB, and then suddenly when the euro reached 1.14 a level it hasn't seen in a long time, the ECB comes out and starts warning its markets about a rate cut...  Coninquidink? I don't think so.

Well, trade negotiations are ongoing as the countries saddled with high tariffs attempt to work out new trade agreements... You know, someone, I don't remember who it was, but someone asked me to tell them my wish for peace in the world... And I said, " we need trade agreements, where both parties win, so in other words a win-win trade agreement, and go back to the smooth global trade that existed before the plandemic, that would go a long way to normalizing the Globe and everyone would be happy. " Shiny Happy People (REM).

The tough nut to crack here with negotiations will be China... The U.S. is to blame just as much as China is here for the tensions that are rising between the two super nations. China is puffing out its chest, and the so is the U.S. to see to blinks first... I can tell you that from my experience it won't be China... Although they did lay out some parameters that they need to have before negotiations can begin... Let's go to the Bloomberg.com for the skinny there:  

"While both China and the US probably want to see tariff rates lowered due to domestic pressure, negotiations are “unlikely to lead to a meaningful de-escalation,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.

“There is a bit more clarity on what China is looking from: respect, consistency and a point person,” she said. “So now the ball is in US court on whether they can meet these demands. But that is still difficult — especially if the aim is to contain China’s rise.”

Chuck Again... So, China feels like they been spit on, and dissed? I can see that... But c'mon this is the real world and things will be said that shouldn't be taken personally...  So, there you have it, all in a nu shell... China has come out and said what they need to see to begin negotiations, now it's up to the U.S. to respond to these parameters... I doubt anything comes of this, these two countries are too far down the rabbit hole of a pending trade war to come out... You know that reminds me of a saying that my dad used to tell me... "When you're in a hole, stop digging"...  

A lot of ink has been used to talk about China and the pending Trade War... I thought that today was a good of time to talk about it as any other, given the lack of news on the newswire today. But to me, it seems like a bunch of chests puffing and saber rattling...

So, what we have today, is a cleanup of the day yesterday, which saw the fear grip the markets once again, Gold soar, Silver get positive, and the dollar get treated like a rental... Treasuries weren't sold to make the dollar selling worse... No, like I said the other day, this dollar selling is a case of: We're getting the hell out of Dodge, and this is the last chance saloon for the dollar...  

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the March print of Retail Sales, of which I had said it would be a decent print, and it was... With Retail Sales rising 1.4%... Not earth shattering but a rise in the end, and I'm actually somewhat surprised by the growth number in that I would love to look under the hood and see what means were used to secure those Retail Sales... Credit Cards?  rotary charges? I would have to think that consumers went further into debt...  

Industrial Production in the U.S. in March printed a neg. -.3%... So, there was no joy in Mudville for that print! And Capacity Utilization was pretty much same-o, smae-o as the Feb print so the glaring black eye on the day's reports was the Industrial Production print.. 

To recap... The fear was back in the markets yesterday, and the selling of the dollar wen full bore again... The BBDXY lost 10 index points for the day yesterday, and the PPT was nowhere to be found...  The selling was just too strong for the PPT to do anything about it... Even if they were champing of the bit to intervene, they stayed on the sidelines... The ECB threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, coming out and saying that the timing for a rate cut was good... The euro remained trading above 1.13, but was cllosing in on 1.14 when the ECB told the markets that they were going to debase the currency again... 

Here's your snippet: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday repeated the mantra we've heard from his nine predecessors:

"We have a strong dollar policy."

While the words are familiar, the conviction behind them may have softened.

The 'strong dollar' policy has always been about more than just the exchange rate, although a more expensive currency can help keep inflation and interest rates low. This policy has represented the world's trust in the U.S., and, consequently, the greenback's role as the lynchpin of the global economy.

But times have changed since 1995. A lot. The world today is losing faith in the dollar, losing trust in the government institutions backing it, and losing confidence in America's role as leader of the 'free world'.

Back then, the North American Free Trade Agreement was in its infancy, China was about to emerge as an economic force, globalization was accelerating, trade and regulatory barriers were being torn down, and global capital flows were exploding. The dollar was pivotal to all that and it soared for the next seven years, right up until the dotcom crash.

The dollar slumped around 40% in the following seven years to the Global Financial Crisis and then drifted for several more years after its post-Lehman surge. But this didn't stop central banks from growing their dollar FX reserves to $4.5 trillion in 2015 from around $1 trillion in 2001.

That was a strong dollar, the world's reserve currency in its prime.

U.S. dollar's share of FX reserves reported to the IMF has been gradually falling

The dollar has remained dominant by any measure. Central banks' dollar holdings have largely flat-lined for the past decade, but private sector buyers have increased their exposure significantly. The greenback is still the most dominant currency in FX reserves, global trade and financial market trading.

But as Steven B. Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, have written, future dollar dominance rests on three factors: "preserving the underpinnings of the dollar's global role; maintaining trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner; and avoiding overuse or abuse of financial sanctions.

Doubt now hangs over all three as the Trump administration's 'America First' agenda has caused foreign investors to look at the dollar in a new light.

Last November, before his confirmation as Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran published a paper, 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System', in which he argued that the dollar, from a trade perspective, is "persistently over-valued in large part because dollar assets function as the world's reserve currency."

Perhaps more importantly, he also noted that while Trump supports the dollar's reserve status, he had floated "substantial changes" to dollar policy. "Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems."

Chuck Again... yes, the dollar does remain entrenched as the reserve currency around the Globe, but the dents in its armor are beginning to grow in size, and are more visible to every man

Market Prices 4/17/ 2025: American Style: A$ .6363, kiwi 5941, C$ .7202, euro 1.1357, sterling 1.3250, Swiss $1.227, European Style: rand 18.8266, krone 10.5318, SEK 9.7178, forint 358.76, zloty 3.7625, koruna 22.0126, RUB 81.81, yen 142.58, sing 1.3120, HKD 7.7637, INR 86.57, China 7.2963, peso 19.90, BRL 5.8739, BBDXY 1,227, Dollar Index 99.56, Oil $53.26, 10-year 4.31%, Silver $32.39, Platinum $968.00, Palladium $961.00, Copper $4.65, and Gold... $3,335.80. 

That's it for today and this week... Just when I thought it was safe to enter the markets again, the fear gripped the markets again yesterday, and will probably be around for the last two trading days this week, so hold onto to your hats... And all the Gold Bugs out there... Are you smiling like the Cheshire Cat? I can't imagine a world where you would be unhappy with Gold's rise...  My beloved Cardinas travel to Citi Fiedd to play that pond scum, I mean the Mets the next 4 games... I see the Mets a lot in Spring Training... And it appears they are moving in the right direction, abeit with their owner paying out HUGE Contracts to the players... He's trying to get the best team money can buy... Oh well, it is what it is... Looks like it's going to rain on the kids' easter egg hunt Sunday, as holy week comes to an end... UGH! The band, Jet, takes us to the finish line today with their song: Are You Gonna Be My Girl? I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today, and a fantastico Good Friday tomorrow, and a blessed Easter on Sunday! And please, oh please, with sugar on top, Be Good To Yourself!