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Risk assets appreciate the positive headlines on US trade, which seem to be occurring more frequently right now. Having said that, euro markets are still keen to price in more policy rate cuts and European Central Bank speakers are not offering any pushback; if anything, it's the opposite. ECB speak

US tariff revenues reached a record-high USD 12bn on 22 April; MTD, they are up 130% vs 2024 levels. At this pace, the increase in tariff revenue is likely to total a little less than 0.4% of GDP over a full year. If tariffs stay at current levels, revenues may move up a little, but there are two-si

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking lower again after two days of gains lifted the DXY some 2% off the three year low reached earlier in the week. The CHF and JPY are sitting near the top of the overnight performance table, just behind the SEK and NOK. The CAD and MXN are firmer but lagging their peers.

A strong belief in resilience or simply ignorance of the tariff extravaganza of the last few weeks? Whatever it is, German businesses look rather unimpressed by recent trade tensions - at least for now. Are German businesses just more relaxed than financial markets, or more naive? This is the questi

China's crude oil imports rose to 12.1 million barrels per day in March, according to data from the customs authority, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Iran and Russia fuel China’s crude buying spree "This was around 1.7 million barrels per day higher than in January/February a

The exemption of some electronics products from the reciprocal US tariffs has provided some relief on the stock market, although expectations were quickly dampened again by the threat that the products would soon be subject to sectoral tariffs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. G

AUD/USD retreats toward the 0.6280 zone during Monday’s American session after peaking near 0.6340.Sentiment on the US Dollar seesaws amid fresh trade headlines and recession commentary.Key resistance is noted around 0.6320 and 0.6410; support lies near 0.6290 and 0.6280. The Australian Dollar gave

Tariff exemptions from the US offered temporary support to the dollar, but broader concerns about credibility and economic weakness continue to weigh. With market correlations breaking down and investor confidence shaken, USD pressure may persist in the near term, Danske Bank's FX analysts report. B

February's surprisingly upbeat GDP data is a reminder that despite all the tariff gloom, activity should remain supported in the near term by government spending and real-wage growth. Finally, some good news to end the week: the UK economy grew substantially faster than expected in February. Monthly

Asia markets are flipping the switch — from fear to euphoria — as Trump throws a 90-day lifeline, pausing the reciprocal tariff barrage. The president’s post nodded to the “yippy” reaction to his historic hikes, and honestly, that sums it up. We just witnessed one of the all-time bouncebacks — and n

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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have declined from record levels following Trump’s speech, in which he excluded gold from the new tariffs. The drop was also driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed solid job growth in March and reinforced confidence in the labor market. Fe

EUR/USD retraces to near 1.0970 as the US Dollar recovers ahead of the US NFP data for March and Fed Powell’s speech.The reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump have underpinned global economic risks.Investors expect the ECB to cut interest rates again in April. EUR/USD corrects below 1.1000 during