Bartholomew

Uncertainty looms amid tariff turmoil Since our last FX Forecast Update, 21 March, the dominating theme for markets has been increased political turmoil in the US triggered by escalating trade tensions leading to mounting US recession concerns. President Trump’s signals have been mixed post Liberati

S&P 500 first rejected 5,240, and got through only on the opening bell buying in the runup to the Bessent speech. Stating the obvious about China tariff unsustainability, and without nay negotiations even having started, markets ran on the news, and didn‘t break back below 5,240 even when it bec

USD: Jun '25 is Up at 98.960. Energies: Jun '25 Crude is Up at 64.21. Financials: The Jun '25 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by over 50 ticks and trading at 115.08. Indices: The Jun '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 532 ticks Higher and trading at 5447.00. Gold: The Jun'25 Gold contract is trading Down

EUR/USD trades near the 1.1500 zone after drifting modestly lower post-European session.Technical outlook remains bullish overall, with MACD signaling buy and moving averages aligned higher. The EUR/USD pair is flashing a bullish signal, currently trading around the 1.1500 area after posting a sligh

USD/JPY sees more downside below 142.00 dur to significant weakness in the US Dollar.US President Trump aims to reduce dependency on China for vital minerals.Investors await Fed Powell’s speech and the Japan’s National CPI data for March. The USD/JPY pair struggles to hold the key support of 142.00

Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged.The Canadian Dollar has been persistently appreciating vs. the US Dollar.Headline inflation in Canada returned to above the BoC’s target.Governor Macklem’s press conference is seen focusing on US tariffs. All the attention is expecte

So, Trump backed off a little, while China discretely flexed its muscles by halting exports of its rare earth minerals. The latter didn’t get enough media attention, but in my view, this likely ends the dramatic series of tariff hikes – at least for some time. Trade War May Have Peaked You see, thos

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A mad week for markets is ending with heavy losses for the dollar. The FX scorecard is speaking volumes; in G10, only the illiquid Norwegian krone is flat against the dollar since last Friday. The question of a potential dollar confidence crisis has now been definitively answered – we are experienci

Markets Markets just gave back a huge chunk of Tuesday’s euphoria, diving 3% as the U.S.-China trade standoff grinds on. The optics are ugly — not just for investors, but for global diplomacy. No one likes being forced to pick sides, and right now the U.S. looks more like the classroom bully than th